November 27, 2015 by retrojoe1
Back in 2010 I moved from the San Francisco bay area to the Portland, Oregon area. At the time I thought that the move was to a less active area for earthquakes so I felt relieved in that regard. But then I started to hear about the mega quake that was coming at some point in possibly the not too distant future.
Around the same time I began writing short articles for hubpages related to earthquakes. The topic of one such hub had me investigating just how likely such a quake would be in the near future. What I found may surprise you. In a nutshell, the Pacific Northwest is overdue for a quake in the 8.1 or 8.4 range off of the coast of southern Oregon, about due west of Coos Bay. That could come at any time within the next 100 years. A 9.0 quake would be centered further off shore than the other potential quake and this bigger quake would be about due west and a bit north of where Oregon meets Washington along the coast, but that can’t be considered past due until about two hundred years from now.
Since writing for hubpages, I’ve published over 65 hubs on earthquakes, most of them doing what the vast majority of earth scientists believe to be impossible; giving probabilities for coming earthquakes measured in days rather than decades. What would make it even more preposterous to seismologists is that I use planetary angular relationships to determine likely periods of time for such quakes. But this is not your grandmother’s astrology.. Rather than taught by reading traditional texts, I use statistical methods to determine the most relevant factors related to earthquakes. And that is what I plan to present here…
Back in April 2014 there was record breaking seismic activity worldwide, for earthquakes of 6.8 magnitude or larger. For 7 months after that things were average, and then, for 4.75 months, it was about half of normal. Then came April 25, 2015 earthquake of 7.85 magnitude. Six days later, seismic activity picked up speed, with 5 times the normal number of earthquakes of this size during a 29 day period.
The larger earthquakes were less frequent for 3.5 months after that, but on September 16, 2015, there was an 8.3 magnitude earthquake in Chile. Instead of a swarm of large earthquakes after that, things became quiet again, which lead me to believe that seismic activity would slip into a below normal phase for about a year after that. However, on October 26, 2015, there was a 7.5 magnitude earthquake on the border of Afghanistan and Pakistan. Activity for large earthquakes then picked up after about a week and lasted till the 24th of November when there was a deep 7.6 magnitude quake under the Peru/Brazil border. It remains to be seen if my earlier hunch of a long term decrease in activity will now begin.
I will be presenting forecasts for each month in the future, just as I have for four years now. One year that I already expect to be highly active is 2017, and that is likely going to have more than 2 big months (rather than the 1 or 2 per year that we have seen over the course of the past 3 years)..
You can find my “Earthquake Weather Forecast”, which I am back to producing at the beginning of each month, at hubpages.com/@retrojoe, but be sure to check back here from time to time where I plan to post some exclusive and likely longer, more in-depth presentations.
This blog is still being worked on. There is a previous website with the same title as this blog, which includes a new article (as of 21 December 2015), and can be found at quakequest.vpweb.com/quakes-with-some-shaky-dates.
You may also wish to visit my weebly page at earthquakepredictionnews.weebly.com to learn more about earthquake prediction or, to learn more about myself, you can surf over to retrojo8.wix.com/enterprises